.png)
I Asked ChatGPT What A Conflict In The Middle East Means For Investors - Here's the White Paper Report
- Cory Mortensen
- Jun 25
- 2 min read
As a supplement to my last blog post, I am including the white paper report that ChatGPT's Deep Research feature provided for me. It's a lengthy report that I will summarize below, but the insights were astounding. Using sources from all over the internet, which I cross-referenced and examined to ensure the information was accurate, I was impressed by how in-depth and considerate the report was of a variety of factors. The report even includes a breakdown of the effects on specific commercial real estate asset classes. If you are into technical and thorough reports, I would take a look at this report to advise and reconcile with your investment outlook.
This is my first time publishing a report generated by AI, and I have back-and-forth opinions on it, but I almost feel like a report of this detail and length should be put to work since Chat worked hard on it. Jokes aside, it was a fun experiment, and I look forward to building a more reliable and valuable AI program to supplement the advice we provide ourselves.
Summary
As tensions rise between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, the ripple effects could significantly shape U.S. commercial real estate (CRE). This report outlines the potential economic and sector-specific implications, historical context, and strategic insights for investors.
Key Impacts on the U.S. Economy
Oil prices and inflation: Conflict in the Middle East could trigger oil price spikes, reigniting inflation and delaying interest rate cuts.
Investor confidence: Geopolitical instability may push investors toward safer assets, impacting risk appetite for CRE.
Interest rates: Prolonged global unrest may extend the “higher for longer” rate environment, affecting financing and cap rates.
CRE Sector Effects
Multifamily: Rent growth may slow in high-cost markets; however, housing remains a stable necessity.
Office: Already weakened by remote work, office demand could further drop as economic uncertainty mounts.
Retail: Consumer caution may curb spending, especially in discretionary sectors.
Industrial: Remains resilient due to supply chain reorientation and e-commerce demand, but watch for shifts in global trade.
Historical Lessons
Past Middle East conflicts (e.g., Gulf War, Iraq War) caused:
Short-term market volatility
Elevated oil prices and inflation
Increased interest in hard assets like real estate
CRE fared best when investors stayed long-term focused and diversified by location and asset class.
Regional Lens: Austin & DFW
Austin: Tech and talent continue driving growth, but higher borrowing costs could cool development.
DFW: Diverse economy and logistics infrastructure help cushion volatility, especially in industrial and multifamily.
Investor Takeaways
Be cautious with leverage in a rising rate environment
Prioritize well-located, stabilized assets
Monitor inflation, oil, and rate signals closely
Expect continued capital flight to quality
*This report, despite being proofed and analyzed by its generator, is still an AI-generated report, and AI can be wrong and make mistakes. References to data are provided at the bottom of the page, and I believe most of them to be from accurate and reputable sources. This is not meant to convey investment advice, and all investments should be discussed with real people, such as attorneys.
